$ Paper money loading the latest snapshot…

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$10,000 · since launch

Just buying Bitcoin instead: 

How it works

A very patient robot

The strategy was tested against 11 years of Bitcoin history before going live. Its edge isn’t predicting the future — it’s losing less when things go wrong.

01
4h

It checks the market every 4 hours

No staring at screens, no panic. Six looks a day at the Bitcoin price — that’s the whole schedule.

02

It follows trends, with strict rules

When the price is clearly trending, it rides along. Hard risk limits decide how much — never the mood.

03
···

When unsure, it sits out

No clear trend means no position. It can hold cash for weeks. Boring is the strategy.

04
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This page keeps the score

Every result — wins, losses, weeks of nothing — lands here automatically. Nobody edits the scoreboard.

Lab notes

We publish the failures too

Most of what we test doesn’t work. Writing that down is the point — it’s how you know the scoreboard above is honest.

Negative result 5 July 2026

We ran the bot at 10× leverage. It liquidated 34 times.

Can you leverage the bot to get rich faster? We ran 11 years at 2x–10x, with real fees and funding, and tested stop-losses too. Leverage isn’t an edge — it’s a risk dial with a fuse on the end.

Read the write-up →
Mixed result 23 June 2026

Does Bitcoin really run on a 4-year clock? We counted the bars.

The “23-bar bottom” is wrong — the bear is ~12 months. The 47/35/12 cycle is real, but only because it’s the halving clock, only fits two cycles, and only looks clean if you delete the 2020 crash.

Read the write-up →
Negative result 21 June 2026

We tested the “follow the money” signals. One was backwards.

Negative funding, rising open interest, spot vs. futures — the flow-trading playbook, measured against years of real funding and open-interest data. The most-repeated signal pointed the wrong way.

Read the write-up →
Negative result 11 June 2026

We tested 20 candle patterns. The famous ones were all noise.

1,005 bullish engulfing candles, hammers, dojis, flags — measured against 11 years of data. The only real signal was the quietest thing on the chart.

Read the write-up →
Negative result 11 June 2026

We spent a day trying to beat our own bot. It won.

Four serious attempts to improve the strategy — cut costs, buy bottoms, fade the crowd. All four failed, including the one that looked like it doubled the money.

Read the write-up →
Method 11 June 2026

What 11 years of backtests can and can’t tell you

Why we trust the process but not any single month — and why this site shows drawdowns first.

Read the write-up →